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Macro · Yields, the curve and rate-sensitive assets

Rates

How rate expectations are shifting across the curve and which assets are most exposed.

Cached · regenerated hourly Medium
FedInflationRatesECB

US rates, inflation & jobs

Live
4.18%
US 10-Year Treasury Yield
-0.9%
4.46%
US 2-Year Treasury Yield
-1.1%
4.83%
Effective Federal Funds Rate
-0.4%
318.4
CPI (All Urban Consumers)
+0.2%
4.1%
Unemployment Rate
+0.7%
-0.28%
10Y–2Y Treasury Spread
-6.7%

Data via FRED · Updated 2026-06-01

Prediction-market events

pricing this theme
Fed cuts rates at the July 2026 meetingpolymarket · Monetary policy+9pts62%ECB holds rates at its next meetingpolymarket · Monetary policy+4pts73%

Assets most exposed

Impact Engine
NDX highNasdaq 100▲ upLower expected rates tend to support long-duration, rate-sensitive equities. US10Y highUS 10-Year Yield▼ downCut expectations typically pull front-to-belly yields lower. US02Y lowUS 2-Year YieldmixedExposed to rates via its rates, Fed-sensitive sensitivities. BANKS lowBanksmixedExposed to rates via its banks, rates sensitivities. EURRATES lowEUR RatesmixedExposed to rates via its rates, macro-sensitive sensitivities.
Research view
What changed

Front-end rate expectations eased on rising cut odds.

Why it matters

Yields drive valuations, the dollar and bank net-interest dynamics.

Probability movement

Cut odds rising; curve sensitive to upcoming data.

Related narrative

Softer data lowered the expected policy path.

Main risk

Re-acceleration in inflation or growth.

What to watch next

Auctions, CPI and Fed communications.

Assets affected
US10YUS02YBANKSNDX

Base

Gradual easing as data softens.

Bull

Lower yields support duration-sensitive assets.

Bear

Yields back up on inflation surprises.

Sources:Polymarket,Kalshi,GDELT Project,FRED

Last updated

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