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Macro · Rate expectations, policy path and market impact

Fed

What prediction markets are pricing for the Federal Reserve, the news moving those odds, and the assets most sensitive to the policy path.

Cached · regenerated hourly Medium
FedInflationRatesECB

Prediction-market events

pricing this theme
Fed cuts rates at the July 2026 meetingpolymarket · Monetary policy+9pts62%US CPI prints above 3% in Q3 2026kalshi · Inflation-6pts41%

Assets most exposed

Impact Engine
NDX highNasdaq 100▲ upLower expected rates tend to support long-duration, rate-sensitive equities. SPX mediumS&P 500▲ upDisinflation generally supports broad equity risk appetite. US10Y highUS 10-Year Yield▼ downCut expectations typically pull front-to-belly yields lower. US02Y lowUS 2-Year YieldmixedExposed to fed via its rates, Fed-sensitive sensitivities. DXY mediumUS Dollar Index▼ downEasing expectations can weigh on the dollar versus peers. XAU mediumGold▲ upLower real-rate expectations are often supportive for gold.
Research view
What changed

Markets moved further toward pricing a July cut after softer labour data.

Why it matters

The Fed path drives rate-sensitive equities, the dollar, gold and the curve.

Probability movement

July-cut odds up to ~62%; inflation-overshoot odds easing.

Related narrative

Cooling labour data reduced perceived inflation pressure.

Main risk

An upside inflation surprise.

What to watch next

CPI, PCE and the next labour report.

Assets affected
NDXUS10YDXYXAU

Base

A measured easing path as disinflation continues.

Bull

Faster cuts support rate-sensitive assets.

Bear

Sticky inflation delays cuts and lifts yields.

Sources:Polymarket,Kalshi,GDELT Project,FRED

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