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Macro · Disinflation trend, surprises and sensitive assets

Inflation

Probability views on inflation outcomes, the prints moving them, and the assets most exposed to inflation surprises.

Cached · regenerated hourly Medium
FedInflationRatesECB

Prediction-market events

pricing this theme
Fed cuts rates at the July 2026 meetingpolymarket · Monetary policy+9pts62%US CPI prints above 3% in Q3 2026kalshi · Inflation-6pts41%

Assets most exposed

Impact Engine
US10Y highUS 10-Year Yield▼ downCut expectations typically pull front-to-belly yields lower. XAU mediumGold▲ upLower real-rate expectations are often supportive for gold. WTI lowWTI Crude OilmixedExposed to inflation via its oil, energy sensitivities. BRENT lowBrent Crude OilmixedExposed to inflation via its oil, energy sensitivities. EUINFL lowEurozone InflationmixedExposed to inflation via its inflation-sensitive, macro-sensitive sensitivities.
Research view
What changed

Odds of an inflation overshoot eased as recent prints stayed in line.

Why it matters

Inflation sets the Fed path and the front end of the curve.

Probability movement

CPI-above-3% odds down to ~41%.

Related narrative

In-line prints reinforced disinflation.

Main risk

Energy or shelter re-acceleration.

What to watch next

Next CPI and PCE releases.

Assets affected
US10YXAUWTI

Base

Inflation drifts toward target.

Bull

Faster disinflation strengthens cut odds.

Bear

Sticky services inflation re-accelerates.

Sources:Polymarket,Kalshi,GDELT Project,FRED

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