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Prediction-market intelligence

See what markets are pricing before it becomes the mainstream narrative.

Track probability shifts from prediction markets, connect them with macro and geopolitical news, and understand which assets may be impacted.
139 assets covered6 live eventsFree · no card required
For market research and informational purposes only. Not investment advice or trading signals.
Live intelligence08:00 UTC · today
1Probability shift2News catalyst3Affected assets4Confidence5What to watch
polymarketCrypto regulation
A new spot crypto ETF is approved in Q3 2026
55%
+11ptsimplied · 24h
02 · News catalystMacro wire (sample)
03 · Affected assetsImpact Engine
  • BTC: positive impact
  • SPX: positive impact
  • NDX: positive impact
  • US10Y: negative impact
04 · Confidence
05 · What to watchFed easing
Global Market PulseCached · regenerated hourly

Rate-cut odds firm up as cooling data meets steady risk assets

Prediction markets are leaning further toward a July rate cut after softer labour data, while inflation-overshoot odds eased. Crypto-ETF approval odds rose on constructive regulatory commentary, and oil-spike odds ticked higher on renewed supply-route risk. Equities held firm and the dollar drifted lower.

MediumSources: Polymarket · Kalshi · GDELT Project · FRED · CoinGecko
6
Tracked movers
4 up · 2 down
$12M
Volume in scope
across venues
+11pts
Largest 24h move
55% implied
68
Avg signal quality
rules-based · 0–100
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ProMarkets provides market intelligence, summaries, scenarios and impact analysis on assets or watchlists defined by the user. It does not assess the suitability or appropriateness of transactions for any specific person, does not execute orders, and does not provide personalized investment advice.

Liquidity & On-chain

Cached · regenerated hourly
Macro liquidityNeutral
Expansiveness 48/100

Macro liquidity conditions read balanced: neither clearly accommodative nor restrictive.

Stablecoin liquidityNeutral
Expansiveness 39/100

Stablecoin supply is broadly flat: crypto-ecosystem liquidity with no clear bias.

Crypto ETF flows

Requires licensed source · Coming soon

Crypto derivatives

Requires licensed source · Coming soon

Premium

Component breakdown of each liquidity pulse, available on Premium.

See Premium
MediumSources: FRED · U.S. Treasury · NYFED MARKETS · DeFiLlama

ProMarkets provides market intelligence, summaries, scenarios and impact analysis on assets or watchlists defined by the user. It does not assess the suitability or appropriateness of transactions for any specific person, does not execute orders, and does not provide personalized investment advice.

Top Probability Movers

The events repricing fastest right now

Ranked by our Retail Probability Trend Index — probability change weighted by volume, liquidity and news intensity. Click any event for the structured research view.

Vol $2.3MTrend 69Signal 83
Assets in scope
Vol $4.8MTrend 75Signal 88
Assets in scope
Vol $1.7MTrend 55Signal 66
Assets in scope
Vol $1.3MTrend 47Signal 63
Assets in scope
Vol $870KTrend 35Signal 55
Assets in scope
Vol $980KTrend 34Signal 55
Assets in scope
News × probability cross

Every probability shift, traced to the news that moved it

A probability move is only useful with a narrative behind it. We link each event to the headlines and macro prints driving it — then to the assets in the blast radius.

Get alerted the moment a probability you track moves.Create free research profile
Assets in focus

Broad coverage. Curated intelligence.

A curated set of core assets in front — thousands more searchable behind. Each carries a live read on how today’s events may impact it.

BTCCrypto
high impact
Bitcoin
$65,685 +1.93%
Driver Crypto
view →
SPXIndex
medium impact
S&P 500
5,612 +0.6%
Driver Risk-on
view →
NDXIndex
high impact
Nasdaq 100
19,840 +0.9%
Driver Mega-cap tech
view →
US10YRate
high impact
US 10-Year Yield
4.18% -1.3%
Driver Rates
view →
DXYFX
medium impact
US Dollar Index
103.2 -0.4%
Driver FX
view →
XAUCommodity
medium impact
Gold
$2,388 +0.8%
Driver Gold
view →
WTICommodity
high impact
WTI Crude Oil
$81.40 +1.7%
Driver Oil
view →
EURUSDFX
medium impact
EUR / USD
1.092 +0.2%
Driver FX
view →

Anonymous preview — create a free account to save assets and get personalized impact analysis.

How it works

From probability shift to market impact.

One pipeline, four moves. We do the scanning and cross-referencing so you read conclusions, not raw feeds. Hover a step to follow the chain.

What makes this different

Stop scanning 20 sources. See the events that matter.

Traditional platforms
Generic news, same for everyone
Prices and charts in isolation
You interpret it all alone
No link between events and your assets
ProMarkets
Probability shifts + news context + asset impact
Events mapped to potentially affected assets
Structured research with confidence scores
Personalized by the assets you actually follow
Personalized intelligence

An assistant that researches — it never tells you to trade.

Ask in plain language across web, Telegram or WhatsApp depending on your plan. Answers come back in one structured shape: what changed, why it matters, scenarios, the main risk, and what to watch next — always sourced, timestamped and compliant.

  • Personalized to the assets on your watchlist
  • Confidence scores on every read
  • No buy/sell calls, no signals, no position sizing
ProMarkets assistant
Should I buy Nvidia before the AI bill vote?

I can’t provide personalized investment advice or tell you whether to buy or sell. Here is a structured research view.

What changedFederal AI-safety bill scheduled for committee markup; passage odds 18% (+2pts).
Assets affectedNVDASEMINDX
What to watchMarkup outcome, committee vote count, any amended scope.
Sources: Polymarket · GDELT · 14:02 UTC
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Your market brief, personalized

See the events that matter to your assets.

Build a watchlist, and we’ll show you which probability shifts and headlines may move it — delivered as research, not noise.

Free to start · No card required · For research purposes only, not investment advice