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Macro · Euro-area policy, EUR rates and European assets

ECB

Prediction-market views on the ECB, the data moving them, and the European assets most exposed.

Cached · regenerated hourly Medium
FedInflationRatesECB

ECB key rates & eurozone inflation

Live
2%
ECB Deposit Facility Rate
0.0%
2.15%
ECB Main Refinancing Rate
0.0%
2.4%
ECB Marginal Lending Rate
0.0%
1.9%
Eurozone HICP Inflation (YoY)
-9.5%

Data via ECB · Updated 2026-06-14

Prediction-market events

pricing this theme
ECB holds rates at its next meetingpolymarket · Monetary policy+4pts73%

Assets most exposed

Impact Engine
SX5E mediumEuro Stoxx 50mixedPolicy continuity reduces near-term equity rate risk. EURUSD mediumEUR / USDmixedA hold keeps EUR rate differentials broadly stable. EURRATES lowEUR RatesmixedExposed to ecb via its rates, macro-sensitive sensitivities. EUINFL lowEurozone InflationmixedExposed to ecb via its inflation-sensitive, macro-sensitive sensitivities.
Research view
What changed

Odds of an ECB hold firmed as euro-area data stayed steady.

Why it matters

ECB policy shapes EUR differentials and European equity risk.

Probability movement

Hold odds up to ~73%.

Related narrative

Data consistent with a patient stance.

Main risk

Euro-area inflation re-accelerates.

What to watch next

Euro-area HICP and ECB communications.

Assets affected
EURUSDSX5EEURRATES

Base

ECB holds and stays data-dependent.

Bull

Dovish guidance supports European risk.

Bear

An inflation surprise forces a hawkish tilt.

Sources:Polymarket,Kalshi,GDELT Project,FRED

Last updated

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