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Macro · Rate expectations, policy path and market impact

Fed

What prediction markets are pricing for the Federal Reserve, the news moving those odds, and the assets most sensitive to the policy path.

En caché · se regenera cada hora Media
FedInflationRatesECB

Eventos de mercados de predicción

que descuentan este tema
Fed cuts rates at the July 2026 meetingpolymarket · Monetary policy+9pts62%US CPI prints above 3% in Q3 2026kalshi · Inflation-6pts41%

Activos más expuestos

Motor de impacto
NDX highNasdaq 100▲ subeLower expected rates tend to support long-duration, rate-sensitive equities. SPX mediumS&P 500▲ subeDisinflation generally supports broad equity risk appetite. US10Y highUS 10-Year Yield▼ bajaCut expectations typically pull front-to-belly yields lower. US02Y lowUS 2-Year YieldmixtoExpuesto a fed por sus sensibilidades a rates, Fed-sensitive. DXY mediumUS Dollar Index▼ bajaEasing expectations can weigh on the dollar versus peers. XAU mediumGold▲ subeLower real-rate expectations are often supportive for gold.
Vista de investigación
Qué cambió

Markets moved further toward pricing a July cut after softer labour data.

Por qué importa

The Fed path drives rate-sensitive equities, the dollar, gold and the curve.

Movimiento de probabilidad

July-cut odds up to ~62%; inflation-overshoot odds easing.

Narrativa relacionada

Cooling labour data reduced perceived inflation pressure.

Riesgo principal

An upside inflation surprise.

Qué vigilar a continuación

CPI, PCE and the next labour report.

Activos afectados
NDXUS10YDXYXAU

Base

A measured easing path as disinflation continues.

Alcista

Faster cuts support rate-sensitive assets.

Bajista

Sticky inflation delays cuts and lifts yields.

Fuentes:Polymarket,Kalshi,GDELT Project,FRED

Última actualización

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