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kalshiUS politicsCached · regenerated hourly

US government shutdown occurs this quarter

Live probability
Cached · regenerated hourly
19%
implied probability
▼ −5pts24h move
Signal quality
65/100 · treat with care
— of market history▼ trending down
Volume$870K
Liquidity$410K
Spread2.0%
Market age—
Latest catalyst

Budget negotiations show incremental progress

Policy desk (sample) · Jun 14, 08:00 PMAffected assets
SPXDXY
What to watch next

Budget-deadline headlines.

Get alerts when this probability movesWe’ll notify you the moment it crosses your threshold — research only, no signals.
Research view
What changed

Shutdown odds fell 5 points to 19%.

Why it matters

Fiscal uncertainty can drive short-term volatility, though broad-market impact has historically been limited.

Main risk

Last-minute negotiation failure.

What to watch next

Budget-deadline headlines.

News & narrative driving it

Assets potentially affected

Impact Engine
SPX lowS&P 500mixedHistorical shutdown impact on broad equities has been limited. DXY lowUS Dollar IndexmixedFiscal headlines can drive short-lived dollar volatility.

Scenarios

Base

A deal is reached and a shutdown is avoided.

Bull

An early resolution removes a tail risk.

Bear

Talks break down near the deadline.

Proprietary scores

rules-based
Retail Probability Trend Index
50 / 100 · attention steady
Probability Signal Quality
65 / 100 · treat with care

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