kalshiInflationCached · regenerated hourly Jun 15, 02:50 PM UTC

US CPI prints above 3% in Q3 2026

Live probability

Cached · regenerated hourly Jun 15, 02:50 PM UTC

41%

implied probability

▼ −6pts24h move

Signal quality

65/100 · treat with care

— of market history▼ trending down

Volume$1.3M

Liquidity$720K

Spread2.0%

Market age—

Latest catalyst

Latest CPI lands in line with disinflation trend

Macro wire (sample) · Jun 15, 02:00 AM Affected assets

US10YXAUSPX

What to watch next

Next CPI and PCE releases.

Get alerts when this probability movesWe’ll notify you the moment it crosses your threshold — research only, no signals.

Research view

What changed

The probability of CPI above 3% in Q3 fell 6 points to 41%.

Why it matters

Inflation prints set the path for Fed policy and the front end of the curve.

Main risk

Energy or shelter components re-accelerate.

What to watch next

Next CPI and PCE releases.

News & narrative driving it

Latest CPI lands in line with disinflation trend

Macro wire (sample) · Jun 15, 02:00 AM

Assets potentially affected

Impact Engine

US10Y highUS 10-Year Yield▼ downCooler inflation reduces upward pressure on yields. XAU mediumGold▲ upLower inflation surprises can support real-rate-sensitive gold. SPX mediumS&P 500▲ upDisinflation generally supports broad equity risk appetite.

Scenarios

Base

Inflation continues to drift toward target without re-acceleration.

Bull

Faster disinflation strengthens cut expectations.

Bear

Sticky services inflation pushes odds back up.

Proprietary scores

rules-based

Retail Probability Trend Index

50 / 100 · attention steady

Probability Signal Quality

65 / 100 · treat with care

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