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polymarketMonetary policyCached · regenerated hourly

Fed cuts rates at the July 2026 meeting

Live probability
Cached · regenerated hourly
62%
implied probability
▲ +9pts24h move
Signal quality
66/100 · robust
— of market history▲ trending up
Volume$4.8M
Liquidity$2M
Spread1.0%
Market age—
Latest catalyst

Softer-than-expected jobs report cools labour market

Macro wire (sample) · Jun 15, 10:00 AMAffected assets
NDXUS10YDXYXAU
What to watch next

Upcoming CPI release and the next labour report.

Get alerts when this probability movesWe’ll notify you the moment it crosses your threshold — research only, no signals.
Research view
What changed

The implied probability of a July rate cut rose to 62%, up 9 points over the past day.

Why it matters

Rate-cut expectations are a primary driver for rate-sensitive equities, the dollar, gold and the front end of the curve.

Main risk

An upside surprise in CPI or wages could sharply reprice cut odds.

What to watch next

Upcoming CPI release and the next labour report.

News & narrative driving it

Assets potentially affected

Impact Engine
NDX highNasdaq 100▲ upLower expected rates tend to support long-duration, rate-sensitive equities. US10Y highUS 10-Year Yield▼ downCut expectations typically pull front-to-belly yields lower. DXY mediumUS Dollar Index▼ downEasing expectations can weigh on the dollar versus peers. XAU mediumGold▲ upLower real-rate expectations are often supportive for gold.

Scenarios

Base

Markets continue to price a high chance of a July cut into the meeting.

Bull

Further soft data cements the cut; rate-sensitive assets extend gains.

Bear

A hot inflation print reverses expectations and reprices the move.

Proprietary scores

rules-based
Retail Probability Trend Index
50 / 100 · attention steady
Probability Signal Quality
66 / 100 · robust

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