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polymarketMonetary policyCached · regenerated hourly

ECB holds rates at its next meeting

Live probability
Cached · regenerated hourly
73%
implied probability
▲ +4pts24h move
Signal quality
65/100 · treat with care
— of market history▲ trending up
Volume$980K
Liquidity$510K
Spread1.5%
Market age—
Latest catalyst

Euro-area data keeps ECB on a patient path

Policy desk (sample) · Jun 14, 06:00 PMAffected assets
EURUSDSX5E
What to watch next

Euro-area HICP and ECB communications.

Get alerts when this probability movesWe’ll notify you the moment it crosses your threshold — research only, no signals.
Research view
What changed

The probability of an ECB hold rose 4 points to 73%.

Why it matters

ECB policy shapes EUR rate differentials and European equity risk.

Main risk

Euro-area inflation re-accelerates.

What to watch next

Euro-area HICP and ECB communications.

News & narrative driving it

Assets potentially affected

Impact Engine
EURUSD mediumEUR / USDmixedA hold keeps EUR rate differentials broadly stable. SX5E mediumEuro Stoxx 50mixedPolicy continuity reduces near-term equity rate risk.

Scenarios

Base

ECB holds and signals data-dependence.

Bull

Dovish guidance supports European risk assets.

Bear

An upside inflation surprise forces a hawkish tilt.

Proprietary scores

rules-based
Retail Probability Trend Index
50 / 100 · attention steady
Probability Signal Quality
65 / 100 · treat with care

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