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kalshiGeopoliticsCached · regenerated hourly

Brent crude trades above $95 before year-end

Live probability
Cached · regenerated hourly
28%
implied probability
▲ +7pts24h move
Signal quality
65/100 · treat with care
— of market history▲ trending up
Volume$1.7M
Liquidity$640K
Spread2.0%
Market age—
Latest catalyst

Renewed supply-route tensions reported in key shipping corridor

Geopolitics monitor (sample) · Jun 15, 11:00 AMAffected assets
BRENTWTIENERGYDEFENSE
What to watch next

Shipping-route headlines and inventory data.

Get alerts when this probability movesWe’ll notify you the moment it crosses your threshold — research only, no signals.
Research view
What changed

The probability of Brent above $95 by year-end rose 7 points to 28%.

Why it matters

Oil-price spikes feed into inflation, energy equities and broader risk sentiment.

Main risk

A sudden supply shock or escalation.

What to watch next

Shipping-route headlines and inventory data.

News & narrative driving it

Assets potentially affected

Impact Engine
BRENT highBrent Crude Oil▲ upDirect exposure to the priced outcome. WTI highWTI Crude Oil▲ upWTI typically tracks Brent on supply-driven moves. ENERGY mediumEnergy▲ upEnergy equities are sensitive to crude price spikes. DEFENSE mediumDefense▲ upGeopolitical risk often supports defense names.

Scenarios

Base

Tensions stay contained and crude trades in a range.

Bull

Supply disruption pushes crude sharply higher.

Bear

De-escalation and ample supply cap prices.

Proprietary scores

rules-based
Retail Probability Trend Index
50 / 100 · attention steady
Probability Signal Quality
65 / 100 · treat with care

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