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Ratehigh impact todayCached · regenerated hourly

US10Y US 10-Year Yield

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RatesFed-sensitiveInflation-sensitiveMacro-sensitive
Today’s intelligenceCached · regenerated hourly
Top event affecting US10Y todayFed cuts rates at the July 2026 meeting
62%▲ +9pts
Main driverRates
Prediction-market signalpolymarket · Monetary policy
Impact confidencehigh
What to watch nextUpcoming CPI release and the next labour report.
Get alerts on US10YResearch only · not investment advice

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What changed

A linked event repriced: Implied odds of a July Fed cut rose to 62% (+9 pts) after a softer labour report cooled the inflation outlook.

Why it matters

US 10-Year Yield is sensitive to rates, Fed-sensitive, inflation-sensitive dynamics.

Main risk

An upside surprise in CPI or wages could sharply reprice cut odds.

What to watch next

Upcoming CPI release and the next labour report.

Events that may affect US10Y

Impact Engine
Fed cuts rates at the July 2026 meetingpolymarket · Monetary policy+9pts62%US CPI prints above 3% in Q3 2026kalshi · Inflation-6pts41%

Sensitivity map

what moves it
Rates
Sensitive to moves in yields and the curve.
Fed-sensitive
Reacts to shifts in the expected Fed policy path.
Inflation-sensitive
Exposed to inflation surprises and real-rate moves.
Macro-sensitive
Reacts to the broad macro backdrop.

Scenarios

Base

US 10-Year Yield trades in line with its key sensitivities.

Bull

Further soft data cements the cut; rate-sensitive assets extend gains.

Bear

A hot inflation print reverses expectations and reprices the move.

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