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Indexmedium impact todayCached · regenerated hourly

SPX S&P 500

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Risk-onFed-sensitiveMacro-sensitive
Today’s intelligenceCached · regenerated hourly
Top event affecting SPX todayUS CPI prints above 3% in Q3 2026
41%▼ −6pts
Main driverRisk-on
Prediction-market signalkalshi · Inflation
Impact confidencemedium
What to watch nextNext CPI and PCE releases.
Get alerts on SPXResearch only · not investment advice

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What changed

A linked event repriced: Odds of CPI above 3% in Q3 eased to 41% (−6 pts) as recent prints came in line with the disinflation trend.

Why it matters

S&P 500 is sensitive to risk-on, Fed-sensitive, macro-sensitive dynamics.

Main risk

Energy or shelter components re-accelerate.

What to watch next

Next CPI and PCE releases.

Events that may affect SPX

Impact Engine
US CPI prints above 3% in Q3 2026kalshi · Inflation-6pts41%US government shutdown occurs this quarterkalshi · US politics-5pts19%

Sensitivity map

what moves it
Risk-on
Tends to rise when risk appetite improves.
Fed-sensitive
Reacts to shifts in the expected Fed policy path.
Macro-sensitive
Reacts to the broad macro backdrop.

Scenarios

Base

S&P 500 trades in line with its key sensitivities.

Bull

Faster disinflation strengthens cut expectations.

Bear

Sticky services inflation pushes odds back up.

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